Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Pages: 356
•
Trim: 7¼ x 10⅜
978-1-4422-7230-9 • Hardback • March 2018 • $126.00 • (£97.00)
978-1-4422-7231-6 • Paperback • March 2018 • $69.00 • (£53.00)
Noel Hendrickson is associate professor and a founding faculty member of the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University. He earned a PhD in Philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and has over a decade of experience teaching reasoning methods to aspiring intelligence analysts.
Acknowledgements
About the Author
Introduction
Part I: The Background to Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis
Chapter 3: An Introduction to the Information Age
Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning in General
Chapter 4: Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning
The Structural, Informal Logical, and Elements of the Mind Paradigms
Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach to Reasoning
Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific Dimensions
Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning
Ideal Reasoning as Virtues to Embody
Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning
Ideal Reasoning as Rules to Follow
Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of Reasoning
Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask
Part III: The Practice of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning in General
Chapter 9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst
The Method of “Analytic Balance Check”
Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of “Analytic Process Reflection”
Chapter 11: How to Know the Right Problem for Analysis
The Method of “Analytic Problem Classification”
Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “What is Happening?”
Chapter 12: Important Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development
The Falsificationist, Bayesian, and Explanationist Paradigms
Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to Hypothesis Development
Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication Dimensions
Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “What is Happening?”
Chapter 14: How to Generate New Ideas
The Method of “Dialectical Hypothesis Generation”
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis
The Method of “Triadic Hypothesis Development”
Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been Taken For Granted
The Method of “Underlying Assumptions Triangulation”
Part VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?”
Chapter 17: Important Extant Approaches to Causal Analysis
The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and Systems Dynamics Paradigms
Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to Causal Analysis
Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions
Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?”
Chapter 19: How to Identify Individual Connections
The Method of “Causal Influence Classification”
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections
The Method of “Causal Loop Diagramming”
Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections
(And How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence)
The Method of “Background Shift Analysis”
Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?”
Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures Exploration
The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms
Chapter 23: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration
Introducing the Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions
Part IX: The Practice of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?”
Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin of a Future Possibility
The Method of “Convergent Scenario Development”
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I)
Chapter 25: How to Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture
(And Foresee Possible Unintended Consequences)
The Method of “Ripple Effect Analysis”
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II)
Chapter 26: How to Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes
The Method of “Divergent Scenario Development”
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)
Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?”
Chapter 27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment
The Risk, Ignorance, and Game Theory Paradigms
Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration
Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation Dimensions
Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?”
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making
Without Known Outcomes or Expectations
The Method of “Strategic Relevance Check”
Chapter 30: How to Support Decision-Making
About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations
The Method of “Decision Significance Comparison”
Chapter 31: How to Support Decision-Making
About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations
The Method of “Expectation Impact Analysis”
Conclusion
About the Author
Dr. Hendrickson's book is a very much needed "how-to" for analysts, and their managers, who in this data-rich and tool-driven environment have too often lost the most important analytic skill: the ability to reason clearly. Hendrickson has developed a new vision specifically for the challenges facing intelligence analysis in applying reasoning to intelligence, in particular in futures analysis. This book should become a standard text for course on Logical Argumentation in Intelligence Analysis; I will use it in mine.
— Barry A. Zulauf Ph.D, Georgetown University Graduate Program in Applied Intelligence
Dr. Hendrickson's book is a very much needed "how-to" for analysts, and their managers, who in this data-rich and tool-driven environment have too often lost the most important analytic skill: the ability to reason clearly. Hendrickson has developed a new vision specifically for the challenges facing intelligence analysis in applying reasoning to intelligence, in particular in futures analysis. This book should become a standard text for course on Logical Argumentation in Intelligence Analysis; I will use it in mine.
— Barry A. Zulauf Ph.D, Georgetown University Graduate Program in Applied Intelligence
Focusing a philosopher's eye on the challenges inherent in producing effective intelligence analysis in the age of information, Noel Hendrickson has crafted an important work that dissects the process of reasoning and how to apply it to the varying analytical methods currently in use. His study discusses the unique aspects and qualities that go into producing well-reasoned analytical products, and how to develop, refine and present them. Meant for aspiring and veteran analysts, as well as the academic community, this book makes a significant contribution to the growing body of literature about intelligence analysis and methodologies.
— Gregory Moore, Director, Center for Intelligence Studies, Notre Dame College
- Core text for courses that teaches reasoning techniques for the purpose of intelligence analysis.
- Introduces new methods for intelligence analysts to employ.
- Methods are classroom-tested by author who has extensive experience developing courses for and teaching aspiring analysts.
- Textbook is organized in modules, allowing great flexibility of use and maximizing effectiveness for the beginner students and practitioner.
- Core text for courses that teaches reasoning techniques for the purpose of intelligence analysis.
- Introduces new methods for intelligence analysts to employ.
- Methods are classroom-tested by author who has extensive experience developing courses for and teaching aspiring analysts.
- Textbook is organized in modules, allowing great flexibility of use and maximizing effectiveness for the beginner students and practitioner.