Arguments, Cognition, and Science

Need and Consequences of Probabilistic Induction in Science

André C. R. Martins

Our reasoning evolved not for finding the truth, but for social bonding and convincing. The best logical methods humans have created provide no path to truth, unless something is assumed as true from the start. Other than that, we only have methods for attempting to measure uncertainty. This book highlights the consequences of these facts for scientific practice, and suggests how to correct the mistakes we still make. But even our best methods to measure uncertainty might require infinite resources to provide solid answers. This conclusion has important consequences for when and how much we can trust arguments and scientific results. The author suggests ways we can improve our current practices, and argues that theoretical work is a fundamental part of the most effective way to do science.

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers / Rowman & Littlefield International

Pages: 220 • Trim: 6¼ x 9

978-1-78661-507-7 • Hardback • May 2020 • $133.00 • (£102.00)

978-1-78661-508-4 • eBook • May 2020 • $37.50 • (£30.00)

Subjects: Philosophy / Epistemology, Philosophy / Movements / Empiricism, Philosophy / Critical Thinking

Arguments, Cognition, and Science

Need and Consequences of Probabilistic Induction in Science

Hardback

eBook

Summary

Our reasoning evolved not for finding the truth, but for social bonding and convincing. The best logical methods humans have created provide no path to truth, unless something is assumed as true from the start. Other than that, we only have methods for attempting to measure uncertainty. This book highlights the consequences of these facts for scientific practice, and suggests how to correct the mistakes we still make. But even our best methods to measure uncertainty might require infinite resources to provide solid answers. This conclusion has important consequences for when and how much we can trust arguments and scientific results. The author suggests ways we can improve our current practices, and argues that theoretical work is a fundamental part of the most effective way to do science.

Details

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers / Rowman & Littlefield International

Pages: 220 • Trim: 6¼ x 9

978-1-78661-507-7 • Hardback • May 2020 • $133.00 • (£102.00)

978-1-78661-508-4 • eBook • May 2020 • $37.50 • (£30.00)

Subjects: Philosophy / Epistemology, Philosophy / Movements / Empiricism, Philosophy / Critical Thinking

Author

André C. R. Martins is an Associate Professor in the School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH) at Universidade de São Paulo (USP). He holds a PhD in Theoretical Physics and was Visiting Professor at École Polytechnique, at the Research Center in Applied Epistemology (CREA) in Paris.

Table of Contents

1. Cognition and knowledge / 2. Individual Reasoning / 3. Groups and Ideas / 4. A need for standards / 5. Logic and Artificial Worlds / 6. Probabilistic induction and its limits / 7. Decisions / 8. Dangers of deciding on ideas / 9. Theories and Philosophy of Science / 10. Auxiliary hypothesis / 11. Solomonoff machines / 12. On Arguments and fallacies / 13. As many as possible / 14. Quantum Mechanics / 15. Current problems in physics / 16. The Humanities / 17. Data and theories / 18. Conclusion

Reviews

Educating people to integrate the concept of incompressible uncertainty within their rational process of decision, I found both original and relevant. The book provides a good tutorial to adopt this nontrivial feature, being aware that determining a priori which choice is right, is often out of reach. Uncertainty is unavoidable and irreducible, although it can be discarded in many cases.
— Serge Galam, Director, CNRS (Centre Nationale de la recherche scientifique) and Sciences Po; Paris